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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. However, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the greatest surprise.

However this year's race is profoundly different. The group of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent division champions declining and longtime also-rans improving together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still